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Unpredictable Future of Political Prediction Markets
September 15, 2022On August 4, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) had withdrawn its no-action letter (i.e., permission to operate) with respect to PredictIt, an online prediction market operated by the University of Wellington, New Zealand and ordered PredictIt to shut down its operations as of February 15, 2023. This no-action letter was issued in 2014 and allowed the University of Wellington to operate a small-scale, not-for-profit market in futures or swaps event contracts for educational purposes, without registration as a designated contract market, foreign board of trade, or swap execution facility (i.e., an exchange), and without registration of its operators.
